FRED — Macro Regime
Federal Reserve economic data regime classifier. Maps FRED indicators to bull/bear/stagflation regime labels.
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Thesis: Most equity signals work in one regime and fail in another. A live regime classifier turns brittle signals into regime-conditional signals. Data source: FRED (fred.stlouisfed.org) — free with API key, ~120,000 macroeconomic series. Methodology: Composite index from 10Y-2Y yield spread, VIX, DXY, BAML HY OAS credit spread. Hidden Markov Model (Hamilton 1989) classifies current regime as Risk-On / Risk-Off / Transitional. Academic evidence: Hamilton (1989), *A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle.* Chen/Roll/Ross (1986) on macro factors. Used across institutional quant shops for regime-gating. Status: Pending. HMM not yet trained on data.
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